Professional Diploma in Strategic Foresight & Scenario Planning: Prepare for the Future

The Strategic Foresight & Scenario Planning: Prepare for the Future course, offered by Geneve Institute of Business Management, is designed to equip participants with the intellectual frameworks and structured approaches required to anticipate change and navigate uncertainty with confidence. Rather than relying on short-term reactions, this program encourages a disciplined way of thinking that connects long-range trends with present-day decision-making.

Participants will explore how organizations can prepare for multiple possible futures by developing forward-looking perspectives that go beyond conventional planning methods. The course places emphasis on understanding signals of change, interpreting emerging patterns, and translating them into meaningful strategic insights. Through a carefully structured progression, learners will build the capacity to frame uncertainty, evaluate alternative futures, and align strategic direction accordingly.

This program is intended to strengthen the ability to think ahead in a rapidly shifting environment while maintaining clarity, structure, and practical relevance to organizational contexts.

Target Group

• Senior managers responsible for long-term planning and organizational direction.

• Strategy professionals involved in shaping future-oriented initiatives.

• Policy makers working within dynamic and uncertain environments.

• Business leaders seeking to strengthen decision-making under uncertainty.

• Consultants advising organizations on transformation and change.

• Project managers handling complex and evolving initiatives.

• Analysts interested in trend analysis and future-oriented thinking.

• Professionals aiming to expand their perspective beyond traditional planning approaches.

Objectives

• Develop a structured understanding of strategic foresight and its role in modern organizations.

• Strengthen the ability to identify and interpret emerging trends and signals of change.

• Build skills in constructing and analyzing multiple future scenarios.

• Enhance strategic thinking under conditions of uncertainty and complexity.

• Connect long-term foresight insights with present-day strategic decisions.

• Improve the ability to anticipate risks and opportunities across different future contexts.

• Establish clear frameworks for evaluating alternative strategic pathways.

• Support more resilient and adaptable planning processes within organizations.

Course Outline 

• Introduction to Strategic Foresight

  • Explanation of strategic foresight as a discipline, including its purpose in supporting long-term organizational thinking and preparedness.

  • Description of how foresight differs from traditional forecasting by focusing on multiple possible futures rather than a single predicted outcome.

  • Identification of the value of foresight in navigating uncertainty and supporting informed decision-making.

  • Overview of the key components that form the foundation of foresight practices.

• Understanding the Nature of the Future

  • Exploration of different perspectives on the future, including predictable, plausible, and uncertain dimensions.

  • Explanation of how uncertainty shapes planning and decision-making processes.

  • Discussion of the limits of prediction and the importance of flexible thinking.

  • Identification of factors that influence how the future unfolds across different sectors.

• Environmental Scanning

  • Explanation of how to systematically observe external environments to identify relevant changes and developments.

  • Description of different domains to monitor, including economic, technological, social, and political factors.

  • Identification of sources of information that support effective scanning processes.

  • Overview of organizing and structuring collected insights for further analysis.

• Identifying Signals of Change

  • Explanation of weak signals and their importance in anticipating emerging developments.

  • Description of patterns that indicate early shifts in industries or societies.

  • Identification of methods for distinguishing meaningful signals from noise.

  • Discussion of how signals evolve into broader trends over time.

• Trend Analysis

  • Explanation of how trends are formed and how they influence long-term developments.

  • Description of different categories of trends, including macro and sector-specific trends.

  • Identification of methods for analyzing trend direction and potential impact.

  • Overview of linking trends to strategic considerations.

• Drivers of Change

  • Explanation of underlying forces that shape future developments across industries and societies.

  • Description of how technological innovation, demographics, and policy shifts act as key drivers.

  • Identification of interactions between different drivers and their combined effects.

  • Discussion of how to prioritize drivers based on relevance and impact.

• Scenario Planning Fundamentals

  • Explanation of scenario planning as a structured method for exploring alternative futures.

  • Description of how scenarios differ from forecasts and predictions.

  • Identification of the purpose of scenarios in strategic thinking.

  • Overview of the components that make a scenario coherent and useful.

• Types of Scenarios

  • Explanation of different scenario types, including exploratory and normative scenarios.

  • Description of how scenarios can represent optimistic, pessimistic, and balanced outcomes.

  • Identification of ways to frame scenarios based on key uncertainties.

  • Discussion of the role of assumptions in shaping scenarios.

• Building Scenario Frameworks

  • Explanation of how to structure scenarios using key variables and uncertainties.

  • Description of defining axes that shape different future possibilities.

  • Identification of relationships between critical factors in scenario construction.

  • Overview of organizing scenarios into clear and distinct narratives.

• Developing Scenario Narratives

  • Explanation of how to translate frameworks into detailed and consistent descriptions of the future.

  • Description of incorporating trends and drivers into scenario narratives.

  • Identification of ensuring internal consistency within each scenario.

  • Discussion of maintaining clarity and relevance in scenario storytelling.

• Analyzing Scenario Implications

  • Explanation of how different scenarios influence strategic choices and priorities.

  • Description of identifying risks and opportunities within each scenario.

  • Identification of potential impacts on organizational performance and positioning.

  • Overview of comparing scenarios to understand their strategic significance.

• Strategic Response Development

  • Explanation of how to design strategies that remain effective across multiple futures.

  • Description of flexible approaches that adapt to changing conditions.

  • Identification of actions that strengthen resilience under uncertainty.

  • Discussion of aligning strategic responses with organizational goals.

• Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

  • Explanation of how uncertainty affects traditional decision-making processes.

  • Description of approaches that support informed choices without complete information.

  • Identification of cognitive biases that may influence strategic judgment.

  • Overview of structured thinking techniques for complex decisions.

• Risk and Opportunity Assessment

  • Explanation of methods for identifying potential risks in uncertain environments.

  • Description of evaluating opportunities that emerge from future developments.

  • Identification of balancing risk and opportunity in strategic planning.

  • Discussion of prioritizing actions based on impact and likelihood.

• Integrating Foresight into Strategy

  • Explanation of how foresight insights can be incorporated into organizational planning processes.

  • Description of aligning foresight with long-term strategic objectives.

  • Identification of challenges in embedding foresight into existing structures.

  • Overview of maintaining continuity between foresight and execution.

• Organizational Readiness

  • Explanation of preparing organizations to respond effectively to future changes.

  • Description of building internal capabilities that support adaptability.

  • Identification of cultural factors that influence openness to foresight.

  • Discussion of aligning leadership perspectives with future-oriented thinking.

• Monitoring and Updating Scenarios

  • Explanation of the importance of continuously tracking changes that affect scenarios.

  • Description of updating assumptions as new information becomes available.

  • Identification of indicators that signal shifts in expected developments.

  • Overview of maintaining relevance of scenarios over time.

• Communication of Future Insights

  • Explanation of presenting foresight findings in a clear and structured manner.

  • Description of tailoring communication to different stakeholders.

  • Identification of methods to convey uncertainty without confusion.

  • Discussion of supporting decision-makers with actionable insights.

• Long-Term Strategic Alignment

  • Explanation of ensuring that long-term strategies remain aligned with evolving future conditions.

  • Description of adjusting priorities based on changing external environments.

  • Identification of maintaining coherence between vision and action.

  • Overview of sustaining strategic focus over extended time horizons.

• Future-Oriented Leadership

  • Explanation of leadership approaches that support forward-looking thinking within organizations.

  • Description of encouraging innovation and adaptability among teams.

  • Identification of leadership roles in guiding organizations through uncertainty.

  • Discussion of fostering a mindset that embraces change and long-term perspective.